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Monday, September 19, 2005





Evergreen Solar



Evergreen Solar has been recieving more attention lately. Alternative energy stocks a commonly momentum plays. The cause?Natural gas prices are rising over $11, twice that of last fall.

XsunX

Many large buildings can benifit from solar power. A recent "gamble" or speculative stock is the penny stock XSNX.OB . They are making photovoltaic glass for large buildings. It's like siding a building with solar cells that you can look through.

It is important to remember that investing in solar power companies, that many large corporations have an advantage. BP Solar and Seimens have very large amounts of production capacity and more than enough free cash for R&D. Evergreen Solar's free cash ( - ) and R&D funding ($5 million) add to potential financing problems unless more stock is sold. ESLR looses nearly $16 MILLION A YEAR ON INCOME OF $30 MILLION and has a market cap of nearly $500 million. This suggests an over valued price. As I mentioned growth may not come if large corporations take advantage of their size and distribution resources ( other competitors include GE and Kyocera )

Capstone turbines and Beacon energy are both far below their recent price levels....I feel Evergreen may have a price below the current one in the near future. I hope that Solar power improves and permeates the market, but I don not expect small companies like evergreen to fully capitalize on the market potential. On that note, Hoku os still bafflingly high at $11 per share. I suspect Kramer coverage had a lot to do with the spec on this.

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