Solar Heated Stocks

Soar Panel Makers have seen some extreme moves. As an environmentalist I am happy the industry is getting support, but as an investor and a person whose dreams with fuel cells disappeared, I am mighty apprehensive.... consider First Solar's (FSLR) P/E of over 500 . Can a company grow into that revenue stream with out difficulty? They are hirining and profitable :)

Chinese solar companies? (The Wall Street Journal Comment) Trina Solar (TSL) Can anyone be sure about their revenues? C'mon they all start promising and burn up in the light. See China Sun Energy for a marketing scam....( CSUN).... And what Jim Cramer's favorite Sun Power SPWR? They make a $400 million on $5 billion in market cap... (at least SPWR has very little debt and is making revenue)


First Solar, (FSLR) around since 1999 is making thin film technology. FSLR shot up 23% for announcing they may have orders...geee.....

Remember BP Solar , Siemens, and Kyrocera actually make money in the solar game ....and no doubt research thin film and nano technology. Will they buy technology or just out spend and crush the little newcomers? I am sure the latter is the case.

Evergreen Solar (ESLR) has not moved in years, and is not profitable although selling in retail stores with BP and Siemens. Adding thin film solar to windows hasn't made much for penny stock XsunX (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?d=t&s=XSNX.OB)

How about this Sun: Sun Microsystems SUNW http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=SUNW because I live near them.
Others in the sun gold rush:
Solarfun (SOLF) and Suntech Power (STP ), JA Solar (JASO ) and Canadian Solar (CSIQ )

New Energy

I am moving to Zecco.com check it.....

So Dems take the house......will energy change? stick to the fundamentals (ie the company makes money) and you will be money making......

PEIX or Pacific Ethanol may go up, but the company is so extremely overvalued, buying the stock is a pure play on momentum. The company is worth less than a dollar a share.

One thing for sure is that ethanol producers use corn and soybeans, which both parties heavily subsidize. I do not want any of the fuel in the future grown, but fuel from recycled products can be useful. Like methanol of waste treatment plants like WMI incorporates. Waste Management is a boring stock though in so far as the price may not change 5% in the next year.

Other opportunities with democrats in congress include Fuel Cell Energy (FCEL). I believe the future of hydrogen as a fuel is so far out that one has to be very realistic in earnings to correctly value the stock. So far FCEL can eek out earnings but looses quite a bit. It may continue to loose (as much as I want the stock to kill the market, I am not naïve)

ENER or energy conversion devices has one of the better chances to prosper. The make money and do not rely on one product. They have battery technology and fuel cell technology. They also have solar panel shingles which were feature on the H&G channel show “I Want That.” The best alternative energy play I see is with battery makers. No matter what for of energy takes the lead, small things will need batteries.

Solar makers and Wind generators will have an uphill battle if just one more nuclear plant is built. Distributed energy may become more important as the power requirements exceed the grids capacity. So small power makers and even powerline service companies may do well. We all need power.

Now Boarding VLCM to the Future

Volcom
What does it take to outfit the future? Styles come and go, so you have to pick a company that can move with the style. When in doubt Stay young.

Quick Facts:
VLCM is profitable with low debt and high growth
pm= 11.5% (yahoo finance)
debt= 200k
ROA = 25%
PE = 21
eps= .93
opinion = Good Balance sheet

Today Volcom was up after its main distributor PacSun was lower.
This company has grown up with the snowboard industry and gotten its diamond logo into most skate shops. It’s not just in Big Mall stores like PacSun, but in “mom’n’pop shops” by mountains and parks. Burton, still my personal fav and not public, is better and less “trendy.” Vans (and VFC corp) have gotten skate / surf brands into mall department stores like Nike, Columbia (COLM) and Quicksilver (ZQK) did before it.

What happens when Volcom catches this wave and ends up in Macy’s? Will it be like North Face which has continued to make some very high quality product , leveraging its name and shoving the arc logo all over Dick’s department stores? Or like Mongoose bikes, which used to make quality bikes and now seems to only make cheap bikes too heavy for even me to ride? Well since Volcom’s products really don’t need too much of a technical edge like bikes and boards, as long as the brand holds up, Volcom will slalom run the economic gates.

Fuel Cells and Big Oil ( FCEL vs. BP )

Could these two live in the same portfolio? Idealism aside, they probably should. Over the next month or so, oil will wane as will alternative energy. But idealism will kick in around November making it a good time to buy Fuel CEll Energy . Seasonally November is good for FCEL. Goto Google chart pagee for FCEL and look at the November though january segment. It rises in the fall, and fals in the spring...every year it seems....

Oil companies do make money, and it may be good for your retirement if you make money. Many of my friends get upset when I decide to recommend they get BP and maybe CRT to add income and stability to their future. Neither are going to rocket up, but they are not going down, unless something big happens which will knock everything else down too.

So my philosophy is that BP is trying to be a good big oil company, but they still have to be a big dog in a dog eat dog industry. CRT earns an incredible 8% yield, which over the long run is a very good return for the lack of risk.

FCEL Fuel Cell energy gives the portfolio some green goodness. The company’s technology can be over run by Seimens or better yet, if their patents hold out (which are aging) they may get bought. As much as I want FCEL to take over the distributed energy market, I’d bet GE could enter at any time and take over when profits are actually there.

I like battery technology and other power companies to add to the energy mix. Idaho Power (IDA) makes fuel cells and is a dividend paying utility whose stock does not move. Dividends are like the stock moving up though! Battery makers are tricky? Toshiba? Panasonic? Who makes the chemical separators for the batteries in power tools?

Any of these can be a stabilizer in a market that is full of stocks with incredibly high PE’s and uncertain futures.

Watching Patiently

I am waiting for October to be over. I do not trust the market right now. Many stocks are fairly valued, meaning I think if they were any higher, they would be over priced. I suggest dividend yeild stocks like VF Corp. Christmas may bring sales to their brands. Banks....not so sure....Food....tough business... I am skeptical of restaurants.... but

My speculative hopefule EBOF , a biofuels stock has plunged, making me glad I have no money in the market now.

Another speculation is CRGN... CuraGen . An oncology stock biotech in DNA research. Totally spec and how can anyone know thr outcome of their research?

Well, My pick from last christmas have done allright....
Last year about this time I was on my way to meet the Oracle of Omaha!!! This year I hope to get to the Mountains and do some BOARDING!

Growing OATS

I have finally visited my first Wild Oats Market in Louisville Kentucky and I was very impressed. I have driven past Harry’s (a Whole Foods Store) in Alpharetta Georgia, where Alton Brown chief/scientist from Food TV’s “Good Eats,” is continually shooting episodes. He totally advertises the store, which he uses to explain what Quality is.


What is driving the growth of Markets like Whole Foods (WFMI) and Wild Oats? Healthy and educated living styles are more common. Wal-Mart’s newness and wonderland of cheap everything is deterring crowd and conscious leery middle income buyers. There are quality food sections in Kroger and other chains…so why are these chains growing so popular? Is it their interior atmosphere? Assured quality, because the management seems to share similar beliefs? Probably.

Details:
OATS (around since the 70’s from Colorado) is up 36% for the year and made $.37 per share net income. Other Financial also look good, except a large amount of debt, which, although typical for a growing company and a good use of stock holder capital, can lead to growing pains. Over 26% of OATS shares are held by insiders which can reduce volatility.

Whole Foods appears to have better financials such as a positive Return on Assets (Oats is negative) earns $1.20 per share…Note: WFMI growth is much less now as they have entered many suburban markets. OATS also has a Negative Operating Margin! They are better at managing inventory (+) but spending lots of money. Also Depreciation is a large part of cash flows which will lower (lower operating cash flow in) as equipment ages….of course spending on equipment will also lower because refridgerators and trucks do last a while after fully depreciated.

OATS seems to have sustainable growth. OATS does not seem overly eager to start new stores and compete like drug stores CVC and Walgreens. They pop up stores that may loose money just to force the competitor out.

Check out finance.google.com for a hyperactive chart that can show trading trends.

Trends are trends, but it is Management and Business Strategy that make long term Buys. Whole Foods managers are serious and good. They are businessmen, not hippies in business. OATS managers seem to be less hardcore but more good spirited. They pay their lower employees more, less aggressive negotiators for rental space, (opinion from news articles), and contribute more to the environmental community.

This separates them from the Kroger chains that have a natural section. Wild Oats, may be up there with whole foods if new big eyed managers come in.

Piedmont Biofuel CoOp

The Carolinas have a growing number of Biodiesel Coops. More and More People are learning that fuel for diesel engines can come from straight vegatable oil, and better, plant oil reacted with methane and washed to operate clean.

I went to the Piedmont Biofuel Coop to check out all this group has learned. I joined in.
They are excellent people and try to educate and create more biodiesel fans. More later....but their large production facility is opening in a month and sell biodiesel 100 on a "trail"of five outlets where members can fill their Jettas and diesel trucks and join in the production.

Powering Down Or Up?

Late september the market takes a bounce like a trampoline into november.
In October the stock bounces up or off the side. Hopefully this October it'll bounce up. The economy is growing....BUT...It is dangerous for us to grow too fast! and unsustainable even...so it is really important to find solid earners...ie value stocks... with low growth...like.... an energy or power company!!..or find a brand new market like...alternative energy!!!

Everything else is trading sideways because high P?E's are evry where and most stocks are fully valued.

IDA Idaho Power and Duke Power are examples of power companies that are constant. They can't loose market share...they practically own the power lines. Idaho power (Div = $1.20 or 3.1% Div yeild) has a big interest in fuel cells and alternative energy ......and is partially owned by Bill Gates. Duke is big in the Nuclear sector, which I think I like ....even though it may take mutant bacteria to get rid of the toxic sludge.

NC Greenpower Is where Carolina residents can pay $4 extra on their bill to support alternative energy development. It is a program that buys alternative power to add to the grid through
Advanced Energy



http://www.advancedenergy.org/

Good People Finish

This is a reprise of a Sustainablog and Treehugger blog from

Jeff McIntire-Strasburg, St. Louis, MO.....

It's good to hear this...Better then Katie Couric eh? Although Morgan Splaylock did have some poetic discourse about politicans being like wrestlemaniacs with media exposure... funny
Anyway...

Good people are recycling phones 22, 2006 07:35 AM - Jeff McIntire-Strasburg

Americans, on average, trade in their cell phones for a newer model every eighteen months, and that creates a huge waste stream of used phones still in usable condition. Fifteen years ago, while cell phones were still a luxury item, Michigan entrepreneur Charles Newman recognized a business opportunity in those old phones. His company, Recellular, now controls more than half of the US market for used cell phones, and in addition to keeping 75,000 phones a week out of landfills, the company provides affordable wireless communications to residents of developing countries around the world. As most used cell phones are collected either by charitable operations, or on behalf of them by wireless giants such as Sprint and Verizon, these used phones also create another stream of revenue for often strapped non-profits:

The March of Dimes, which does research and education on birth defect prevention, turned to ReCellular when it decided to launch a cellphone donation program several years ago. The drive brings in about $160,000 a year.

"They are an excellent company to deal with," said March of Dimes fundraising executive Bob Perry.

When the Canadian Association of Food Banks decided to set up a cellphone collection program, it shopped around for a company to handle the phones, said spokeswoman Tamara Eberle in Toronto.

The umbrella group for 2,000 food banks and other agencies across Canada has collected about 100,000 phones through its Phones for Food program that began in 2003, raising about $140,000.

Those phones often go to countries where residents often have cellular access (over 80% of the world has it), but new phones are prohibitively expensive. Recellular's phones retail for $40 or less, opening up communication possibilities to people far from land line infrastructure. Like Great Britain's envirophone, Recellular demonstrates that reusing and recycling create plentiful opportunities for people, planet and profit. As reduction doesn't seem to be on most Americans' mind in terms of cell phone purchases, it's great to see companies like these keeping older ones in circulation. ::USA Today via NextBillion

Good People Finish

This is a reprise of a Sustainablog and Treehugger blog from

Jeff McIntire-Strasburg, St. Louis, MO.....

It's good to hear this...Better then Katie Couric eh? Although Morgan Splaylock did have some poetic discourse about politicans being like wrestlemaniacs with media exposure... funny
Anyway...

Good people are recycling phones 22, 2006 07:35 AM - Jeff McIntire-Strasburg

Americans, on average, trade in their cell phones for a newer model every eighteen months, and that creates a huge waste stream of used phones still in usable condition. Fifteen years ago, while cell phones were still a luxury item, Michigan entrepreneur Charles Newman recognized a business opportunity in those old phones. His company, Recellular, now controls more than half of the US market for used cell phones, and in addition to keeping 75,000 phones a week out of landfills, the company provides affordable wireless communications to residents of developing countries around the world. As most used cell phones are collected either by charitable operations, or on behalf of them by wireless giants such as Sprint and Verizon, these used phones also create another stream of revenue for often strapped non-profits:

The March of Dimes, which does research and education on birth defect prevention, turned to ReCellular when it decided to launch a cellphone donation program several years ago. The drive brings in about $160,000 a year.

"They are an excellent company to deal with," said March of Dimes fundraising executive Bob Perry.

When the Canadian Association of Food Banks decided to set up a cellphone collection program, it shopped around for a company to handle the phones, said spokeswoman Tamara Eberle in Toronto.

The umbrella group for 2,000 food banks and other agencies across Canada has collected about 100,000 phones through its Phones for Food program that began in 2003, raising about $140,000.

Those phones often go to countries where residents often have cellular access (over 80% of the world has it), but new phones are prohibitively expensive. Recellular's phones retail for $40 or less, opening up communication possibilities to people far from land line infrastructure. Like Great Britain's envirophone, Recellular demonstrates that reusing and recycling create plentiful opportunities for people, planet and profit. As reduction doesn't seem to be on most Americans' mind in terms of cell phone purchases, it's great to see companies like these keeping older ones in circulation. ::USA Today via NextBillion